Bentleigh district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 79% to win Bentleigh (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Bentleigh in 79% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (>99%). Bentleigh is held by Labor (Nick Staikos); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.0 points.
Chance of winning Bentleigh
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 79% | 36.7% |
| Labor | 21% | 29.3% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 36.7% · Labor 29.3% · One Nation 15.4% · Greens 13.5% · Others 3.8% · Independent 1.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 19%, Coalition 31%, Labor 24%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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