Hawthorn district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 91% to win Hawthorn (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Hawthorn in 91% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Independent (55%). Hawthorn is held by Liberal (John Pesutto); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 1.7 points.
Chance of winning Hawthorn
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 91% | 46.2% |
| Independent | 9% | 15.1% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 46.2% · Labor 15.3% · Independent 15.1% · Greens 14.0% · One Nation 6.0% · Others 3.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 9%, Coalition 42%, Labor 13%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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