Gippsland South district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 83% to win Gippsland South (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Gippsland South in 83% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (>99%). Gippsland South is held by National (Danny O'Brien); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 15.6 points.
Chance of winning Gippsland South
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 83% | 37.5% |
| One Nation | 17% | 33.8% |
Expected first preferences: National 37.5% · One Nation 33.8% · Greens 10.8% · Labor 10.5% · Others 4.5% · Independent 2.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 36%, Coalition 34%, Labor 14%, Greens 6%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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