Melbourne district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 97% to win Melbourne (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Melbourne in 97% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (63%). Melbourne is held by Greens (Ellen Sandell); in 2022 Greens won it, GRN v ALP, by 10.2 points.
Chance of winning Melbourne
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 97% | 43.4% |
| Labor | 3% | 19.8% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 43.4% · Labor 19.8% · Liberal 18.0% · Others 9.4% · One Nation 8.6%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 9%, Coalition 16%, Labor 30%, Greens 28%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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