Euroa district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 56% to win Euroa (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Euroa in 56% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (99%). Euroa is held by National (Annabelle Cleeland); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 9.9 points.
Chance of winning Euroa
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 56% | 22.6% |
| One Nation | 44% | 35.7% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 35.7% · National 22.6% · Liberal 15.5% · Labor 13.6% · Greens 7.4% · Others 5.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 41%, Coalition 27%, Labor 16%, Greens 9%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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