Melton district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 93% to win Melton (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Melton in 93% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (70%). Melton is held by Labor (Steve McGhie); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 4.6 points.
Chance of winning Melton
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 93% | 29.0% |
| Liberal | 6% | 22.0% |
| Labor | 1% | 21.6% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 29.0% · Liberal 22.0% · Labor 21.6% · Others 15.2% · Greens 6.6% · Independent 5.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 33%, Coalition 19%, Labor 22%, Greens 9%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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