Box Hill district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 54% to win Box Hill (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Box Hill in 54% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (97%). Box Hill is held by Labor (Paul Hamer); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 7.2 points.
Chance of winning Box Hill
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 54% | 37.6% |
| Labor | 46% | 28.0% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 37.6% · Labor 28.0% · Greens 17.3% · One Nation 10.2% · Others 6.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 16%, Coalition 30%, Labor 27%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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