Richmond district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 90% to win Richmond (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Richmond in 90% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (51%). Richmond is held by Greens (Gabrielle de Vietri); in 2022 Greens won it, GRN v ALP, by 7.3 points.
Chance of winning Richmond
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 90% | 40.5% |
| Labor | 10% | 21.9% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 40.5% · Labor 21.9% · Liberal 19.8% · Others 9.3% · One Nation 7.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 9%, Coalition 14%, Labor 29%, Greens 30%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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