Mordialloc district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 75% to win Mordialloc (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Mordialloc in 75% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (97%). Mordialloc is held by Labor (Tim Richardson); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.2 points.
Chance of winning Mordialloc
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 75% | 31.0% |
| Labor | 24% | 27.6% |
| One Nation | 2% | 18.5% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 31.0% · Labor 27.6% · One Nation 18.5% · Greens 13.0% · Independent 5.0% · Others 4.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 22%, Coalition 24%, Labor 29%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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