Gippsland East district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 83% to win Gippsland East (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Gippsland East in 83% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (>99%). Gippsland East is held by National (Tim Bull); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 24.6 points.
Chance of winning Gippsland East
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 83% | 42.4% |
| One Nation | 17% | 35.6% |
Expected first preferences: National 42.4% · One Nation 35.6% · Greens 8.6% · Labor 7.2% · Others 6.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 37%, Coalition 41%, Labor 12%, Greens 6%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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