Warrandyte district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal >99% to win Warrandyte (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Warrandyte in >99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (90%). Warrandyte is held by Liberal (Nicole Werner); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 4.3 points.
Chance of winning Warrandyte
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | >99% | 45.5% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 45.5% · Labor 20.2% · Greens 14.6% · One Nation 14.5% · Others 4.2% · Independent 1.0%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 21%, Coalition 39%, Labor 20%, Greens 10%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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