Shepparton district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 82% to win Shepparton (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Shepparton in 82% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (78%). Shepparton is held by National (Kim O'Keeffe); in 2022 National won it, NAT v IND, by 6.8 points.
Chance of winning Shepparton
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 82% | 25.9% |
| One Nation | 17% | 28.4% |
| Independent | 1% | 16.5% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 28.4% · National 25.9% · Liberal 16.6% · Independent 16.5% · Greens 4.3% · Others 4.2% · Labor 4.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 27%, Coalition 40%, Labor 10%, Greens 5%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
All 88 districts
Statewide forecastAlbert Park · Ashwood · Bass · Bayswater · Bellarine · Benambra · Bendigo East · Bendigo West · Bentleigh · Berwick · Box Hill · Brighton · Broadmeadows · Brunswick · Bulleen · Bundoora · Carrum · Caulfield · Clarinda · Cranbourne · Croydon · Dandenong · Eildon · Eltham · Essendon · Eureka · Euroa · Evelyn · Footscray · Frankston · Geelong · Gippsland East · Gippsland South · Glen Waverley · Greenvale · Hastings · Hawthorn · Ivanhoe · Kalkallo · Kew · Kororoit · Lara · Laverton · Lowan · Macedon · Malvern · Melbourne · Melton · Mildura · Mill Park · Monbulk · Mordialloc · Mornington · Morwell · Mulgrave · Murray Plains · Narracan · Narre Warren North · Narre Warren South · Nepean · Niddrie · Northcote · Oakleigh · Ovens Valley · Pakenham · Pascoe Vale · Point Cook · Polwarth · Prahran · Preston · Richmond · Ringwood · Ripon · Rowville · Sandringham · Shepparton · South Barwon · South-West Coast · St Albans · Sunbury · Sydenham · Tarneit · Thomastown · Warrandyte · Wendouree · Werribee · Williamstown · Yan Yean