Sydenham district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 82% to win Sydenham (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Sydenham in 82% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (69%). Sydenham is held by Labor (Natalie Hutchins); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.8 points.
Chance of winning Sydenham
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 82% | 30.2% |
| Liberal | 15% | 25.0% |
| Labor | 4% | 23.8% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 30.2% · Liberal 25.0% · Labor 23.8% · Others 13.0% · Greens 8.0%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 38%, Coalition 18%, Labor 21%, Greens 9%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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