Frankston district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 47% to win Frankston (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Frankston in 47% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (50%). Frankston is held by Labor (Paul Edbrooke); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.7 points.
Chance of winning Frankston
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 47% | 26.5% |
| One Nation | 32% | 23.8% |
| Labor | 20% | 23.7% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 26.5% · One Nation 23.8% · Labor 23.7% · Greens 15.7% · Others 8.9% · Independent 1.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 28%, Coalition 20%, Labor 27%, Greens 13%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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