Mildura district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 58% to win Mildura (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Mildura in 58% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (59%). Mildura is held by National (Jade Benham); in 2022 National won it, NAT v IND, by 1.2 points.
Chance of winning Mildura
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 58% | 21.5% |
| One Nation | 38% | 28.6% |
| Independent | 4% | 19.5% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 28.6% · National 21.5% · Independent 19.5% · Liberal 15.9% · Others 7.1% · Greens 4.1% · Labor 3.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 27%, Coalition 40%, Labor 7%, Greens 4%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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