Narracan district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 50% to win Narracan (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Narracan in 50% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v One Nation (77%). Narracan is held by Liberal (Wayne Farnham); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v IND, by 13.0 points.
Chance of winning Narracan
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 50% | 30.8% |
| Liberal | 41% | 32.5% |
| Independent | 9% | 14.3% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 32.5% · One Nation 30.8% · Independent 14.3% · Labor 10.3% · Greens 7.2% · Others 4.9%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 34%, Coalition 37%, Labor 0%, Greens 5%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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