Thomastown district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 57% to win Thomastown (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Thomastown in 57% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (81%). Thomastown is held by Labor (Bronwyn Halfpenny); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 15.8 points.
Chance of winning Thomastown
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 57% | 30.9% |
| One Nation | 35% | 26.0% |
| Liberal | 8% | 22.6% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 30.9% · One Nation 26.0% · Liberal 22.6% · Others 11.4% · Greens 9.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 33%, Coalition 18%, Labor 28%, Greens 9%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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