Ivanhoe district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 69% to win Ivanhoe (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Ivanhoe in 69% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (76%). Ivanhoe is held by Labor (Anthony Carbines); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 13.0 points.
Chance of winning Ivanhoe
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 69% | 27.7% |
| Greens | 18% | 23.1% |
| Liberal | 13% | 31.7% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 31.7% · Labor 27.7% · Greens 23.1% · One Nation 12.4% · Others 3.8% · Independent 1.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 15%, Coalition 24%, Labor 31%, Greens 17%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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