Carrum district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 42% to win Carrum (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Carrum in 42% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (51%). Carrum is held by Labor (Sonya Kilkenny); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 9.8 points.
Chance of winning Carrum
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 42% | 27.5% |
| One Nation | 37% | 26.2% |
| Labor | 22% | 28.6% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 28.6% · Liberal 27.5% · One Nation 26.2% · Greens 10.0% · Others 6.2% · Independent 1.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 30%, Coalition 20%, Labor 25%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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