Malvern district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal >99% to win Malvern (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Malvern in >99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (77%). Malvern is held by Liberal (Michael O'Brien); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 8.1 points.
Chance of winning Malvern
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | >99% | 51.6% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 51.6% · Greens 19.1% · Labor 16.3% · One Nation 9.2% · Others 2.7% · Independent 1.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 15%, Coalition 43%, Labor 18%, Greens 13%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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