Northcote district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 65% to win Northcote (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Northcote in 65% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Greens (96%). Northcote is held by Labor (Kat Theophanous); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v GRN, by 0.2 points.
Chance of winning Northcote
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 65% | 35.2% |
| Labor | 35% | 27.3% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 35.2% · Labor 27.3% · Liberal 13.0% · One Nation 11.8% · Others 11.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 12%, Coalition 12%, Labor 31%, Greens 26%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
All 88 districts
Statewide forecastAlbert Park · Ashwood · Bass · Bayswater · Bellarine · Benambra · Bendigo East · Bendigo West · Bentleigh · Berwick · Box Hill · Brighton · Broadmeadows · Brunswick · Bulleen · Bundoora · Carrum · Caulfield · Clarinda · Cranbourne · Croydon · Dandenong · Eildon · Eltham · Essendon · Eureka · Euroa · Evelyn · Footscray · Frankston · Geelong · Gippsland East · Gippsland South · Glen Waverley · Greenvale · Hastings · Hawthorn · Ivanhoe · Kalkallo · Kew · Kororoit · Lara · Laverton · Lowan · Macedon · Malvern · Melbourne · Melton · Mildura · Mill Park · Monbulk · Mordialloc · Mornington · Morwell · Mulgrave · Murray Plains · Narracan · Narre Warren North · Narre Warren South · Nepean · Niddrie · Northcote · Oakleigh · Ovens Valley · Pakenham · Pascoe Vale · Point Cook · Polwarth · Prahran · Preston · Richmond · Ringwood · Ripon · Rowville · Sandringham · Shepparton · South Barwon · South-West Coast · St Albans · Sunbury · Sydenham · Tarneit · Thomastown · Warrandyte · Wendouree · Werribee · Williamstown · Yan Yean