Brunswick district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens >99% to win Brunswick (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Brunswick in >99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Greens (89%). Brunswick is held by Greens (Tim Read); in 2022 Greens won it, GRN v ALP, by 13.7 points.
Chance of winning Brunswick
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | >99% | 50.6% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 50.6% · Labor 18.5% · Liberal 11.1% · Others 11.1% · One Nation 7.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 8%, Coalition 11%, Labor 30%, Greens 33%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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