Kew district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 95% to win Kew (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Kew in 95% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Independent (64%). Kew is held by Liberal (Jess Wilson); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 4.0 points.
Chance of winning Kew
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 95% | 47.9% |
| Independent | 5% | 15.8% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 47.9% · Independent 15.8% · Labor 15.6% · Greens 10.8% · One Nation 7.3% · Others 2.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 12%, Coalition 48%, Labor 11%, Greens 8%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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