Bendigo West district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 73% to win Bendigo West (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Bendigo West in 73% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (71%). Bendigo West is held by Labor (Maree Edwards); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 14.6 points.
Chance of winning Bendigo West
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 73% | 29.3% |
| Liberal | 22% | 24.8% |
| One Nation | 5% | 19.7% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 29.3% · Liberal 24.8% · One Nation 19.7% · Greens 14.4% · Others 10.1% · Independent 1.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 27%, Coalition 21%, Labor 24%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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