Sunbury district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 56% to win Sunbury (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Sunbury in 56% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (52%). Sunbury is held by Labor (Josh Bull); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 6.4 points.
Chance of winning Sunbury
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 56% | 28.0% |
| Liberal | 39% | 27.7% |
| Labor | 6% | 24.0% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 28.0% · Liberal 27.7% · Labor 24.0% · Others 9.2% · Greens 8.8% · Independent 2.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 29%, Coalition 25%, Labor 21%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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