Lara district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 65% to win Lara (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Lara in 65% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (99%). Lara is held by Labor (Ella George); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 15.9 points.
Chance of winning Lara
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 65% | 31.2% |
| Labor | 35% | 26.4% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 31.2% · Labor 26.4% · Liberal 17.9% · Greens 14.2% · Others 8.7% · Independent 1.5%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 29%, Coalition 16%, Labor 28%, Greens 13%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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