Hastings district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 80% to win Hastings (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Hastings in 80% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v One Nation (46%). Hastings is held by Labor (Paul Mercurio); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 1.4 points.
Chance of winning Hastings
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 80% | 33.3% |
| One Nation | 19% | 26.8% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 33.3% · One Nation 26.8% · Labor 19.7% · Greens 12.7% · Others 6.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 28%, Coalition 29%, Labor 20%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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