Cranbourne district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 80% to win Cranbourne (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Cranbourne in 80% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (79%). Cranbourne is held by Labor (Pauline Richards); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 9.0 points.
Chance of winning Cranbourne
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 80% | 29.1% |
| Liberal | 13% | 24.4% |
| Labor | 7% | 26.0% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 29.1% · Labor 26.0% · Liberal 24.4% · Others 12.4% · Greens 7.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 32%, Coalition 17%, Labor 25%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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