Bass district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 58% to win Bass (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Bass in 58% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v One Nation (86%). Bass is held by Labor (Jordan Crugnale); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 0.2 points.
Chance of winning Bass
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 58% | 27.9% |
| Liberal | 42% | 24.7% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 27.9% · Liberal 24.7% · Labor 16.9% · National 10.9% · Greens 10.6% · Others 7.7% · Independent 1.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 33%, Coalition 27%, Labor 20%, Greens 8%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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