Bendigo East district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 52% to win Bendigo East (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Bendigo East in 52% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (87%). Bendigo East is held by Labor (Jacinta Allan); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 10.8 points.
Chance of winning Bendigo East
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 52% | 31.8% |
| Liberal | 45% | 28.5% |
| One Nation | 4% | 20.8% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 31.8% · Liberal 28.5% · One Nation 20.8% · Greens 11.8% · Others 4.6% · Independent 2.5%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 25%, Coalition 26%, Labor 18%, Greens 6%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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