Wendouree district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 48% to win Wendouree (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Wendouree in 48% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (61%). Wendouree is held by Labor (Juliana Addison); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 11.9 points.
Chance of winning Wendouree
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 48% | 27.4% |
| Labor | 30% | 27.8% |
| One Nation | 22% | 23.8% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 27.8% · Liberal 27.4% · One Nation 23.8% · Greens 13.2% · Others 7.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 26%, Coalition 18%, Labor 28%, Greens 12%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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