Narre Warren North district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 83% to win Narre Warren North (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Narre Warren North in 83% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (86%). Narre Warren North is held by Labor (Belinda Wilson); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 8.7 points.
Chance of winning Narre Warren North
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 83% | 30.1% |
| Labor | 9% | 25.7% |
| Liberal | 8% | 23.6% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 30.1% · Labor 25.7% · Liberal 23.6% · Others 10.2% · Greens 9.1% · Independent 1.3%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 33%, Coalition 15%, Labor 27%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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