Evelyn district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 99% to win Evelyn (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Evelyn in 99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (62%). Evelyn is held by Liberal (Bridget Vallence); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 5.4 points.
Chance of winning Evelyn
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 99% | 40.5% |
| One Nation | 1% | 22.8% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 40.5% · One Nation 22.8% · Labor 18.0% · Greens 11.9% · Others 6.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 29%, Coalition 33%, Labor 15%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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