Niddrie district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 63% to win Niddrie (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Niddrie in 63% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (51%). Niddrie is held by Labor (Ben Carroll); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 6.7 points.
Chance of winning Niddrie
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 63% | 30.2% |
| One Nation | 33% | 26.2% |
| Labor | 4% | 24.8% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 30.2% · One Nation 26.2% · Labor 24.8% · Greens 9.7% · Others 8.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 27%, Coalition 31%, Labor 22%, Greens 13%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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