Preston district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 78% to win Preston (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Preston in 78% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (63%). Preston is held by Labor (Nathan Lambert); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v GRN, by 2.1 points.
Chance of winning Preston
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 78% | 24.1% |
| Greens | 10% | 18.5% |
| Independent | 9% | 9.6% |
| One Nation | 3% | 19.0% |
| Liberal | 1% | 17.4% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 24.1% · One Nation 19.0% · Greens 18.5% · Liberal 17.4% · Others 11.4% · Independent 9.6%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 19%, Coalition 16%, Labor 27%, Greens 19%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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