Glen Waverley district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 97% to win Glen Waverley (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Glen Waverley in 97% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (>99%). Glen Waverley is held by Labor (John Mullahy); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 3.3 points.
Chance of winning Glen Waverley
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 97% | 41.6% |
| Labor | 3% | 26.7% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 41.6% · Labor 26.7% · One Nation 12.7% · Greens 12.2% · Others 6.9%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 21%, Coalition 33%, Labor 29%, Greens 10%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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