Berwick district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 96% to win Berwick (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Berwick in 96% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (52%). Berwick is held by Liberal (Brad Battin); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 4.7 points.
Chance of winning Berwick
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 96% | 38.0% |
| One Nation | 4% | 25.2% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 38.0% · One Nation 25.2% · Labor 19.1% · Greens 12.4% · Others 5.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 29%, Coalition 29%, Labor 23%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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