Murray Plains district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 64% to win Murray Plains (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Murray Plains in 64% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (>99%). Murray Plains is held by National (Peter Walsh); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 23.4 points.
Chance of winning Murray Plains
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 64% | 40.8% |
| One Nation | 36% | 38.4% |
Expected first preferences: National 40.8% · One Nation 38.4% · Labor 7.9% · Others 6.0% · Greens 5.8% · Independent 1.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 44%, Coalition 34%, Labor 10%, Greens 5%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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