Ovens Valley district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
National 72% to win Ovens Valley (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), National wins Ovens Valley in 72% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (>99%). Ovens Valley is held by National (Tim McCurdy); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 17.8 points.
Chance of winning Ovens Valley
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| National | 72% | 36.4% |
| One Nation | 28% | 34.0% |
Expected first preferences: National 36.4% · One Nation 34.0% · Greens 11.5% · Labor 9.2% · Others 8.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 44%, Coalition 27%, Labor 13%, Greens 7%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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