Pascoe Vale district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Greens 54% to win Pascoe Vale (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Greens wins Pascoe Vale in 54% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Greens (50%). Pascoe Vale is held by Labor (Anthony Cianflone); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v GRN, by 2.0 points.
Chance of winning Pascoe Vale
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Greens | 54% | 26.7% |
| Labor | 45% | 25.4% |
Expected first preferences: Greens 26.7% · Labor 25.4% · Liberal 21.7% · One Nation 13.5% · Others 9.7% · Independent 3.0%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 14%, Coalition 18%, Labor 25%, Greens 26%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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