Rowville district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 99% to win Rowville (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Rowville in 99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (93%). Rowville is held by Liberal (Kim Wells); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 3.7 points.
Chance of winning Rowville
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 99% | 41.2% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 41.2% · Labor 21.2% · One Nation 14.6% · Greens 9.4% · Independent 8.5% · Others 5.2%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 20%, Coalition 35%, Labor 20%, Greens 8%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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