Mornington district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal 95% to win Mornington (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Mornington in 95% of simulations. The most likely final two is Liberal v Independent (68%). Mornington is held by Liberal (Chris Crewther); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v IND, by 0.7 points.
Chance of winning Mornington
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 95% | 41.0% |
| Independent | 4% | 15.0% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 41.0% · One Nation 17.5% · Independent 15.0% · Labor 13.4% · Greens 8.6% · Others 4.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 23%, Coalition 33%, Labor 16%, Greens 6%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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