Morwell district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 57% to win Morwell (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Morwell in 57% of simulations. The most likely final two is National v One Nation (98%). Morwell is held by National (Martin Cameron); in 2022 National won it, NAT v ALP, by 4.4 points.
Chance of winning Morwell
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 57% | 33.5% |
| National | 43% | 19.0% |
Expected first preferences: One Nation 33.5% · National 19.0% · Labor 16.6% · Liberal 12.9% · Others 8.1% · Greens 6.5% · Independent 3.4%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 28%, Coalition 33%, Labor 12%, Greens 5%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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