Footscray district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 78% to win Footscray (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Footscray in 78% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Greens (56%). Footscray is held by Labor (Katie Hall); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v GRN, by 4.2 points.
Chance of winning Footscray
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 78% | 28.7% |
| Greens | 23% | 26.7% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 28.7% · Greens 26.7% · Liberal 18.8% · One Nation 13.6% · Others 12.1%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 16%, Coalition 14%, Labor 29%, Greens 24%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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