Dandenong district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 76% to win Dandenong (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Dandenong in 76% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (81%). Dandenong is held by Labor (Gabrielle Williams); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 18.3 points.
Chance of winning Dandenong
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 76% | 34.4% |
| One Nation | 20% | 23.2% |
| Liberal | 4% | 21.2% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 34.4% · One Nation 23.2% · Liberal 21.2% · Others 10.7% · Greens 10.6%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 29%, Coalition 15%, Labor 38%, Greens 10%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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