Broadmeadows district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 67% to win Broadmeadows (lean).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Broadmeadows in 67% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (53%). Broadmeadows is held by Labor (Kathleen Matthews-Ward); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 15.5 points.
Chance of winning Broadmeadows
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 67% | 29.1% |
| Liberal | 18% | 23.2% |
| One Nation | 16% | 20.9% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 29.1% · Liberal 23.2% · One Nation 20.9% · Others 13.3% · Greens 10.9% · Independent 2.6%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 26%, Coalition 14%, Labor 25%, Greens 16%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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