Croydon district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Liberal >99% to win Croydon (safe).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Liberal wins Croydon in >99% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (91%). Croydon is held by Liberal (David Hodgett); in 2022 Liberal won it, LIB v ALP, by 1.4 points.
Chance of winning Croydon
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | >99% | 40.6% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 40.6% · Labor 20.5% · One Nation 17.3% · Greens 13.6% · Others 8.0%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 22%, Coalition 34%, Labor 21%, Greens 15%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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