Werribee district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 41% to win Werribee (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Werribee in 41% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (68%). Werribee is held by Labor (John Lister); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 10.9 points.
Chance of winning Werribee
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 41% | 24.5% |
| Labor | 37% | 27.4% |
| Liberal | 23% | 24.1% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 27.4% · One Nation 24.5% · Liberal 24.1% · Others 11.0% · Greens 9.1% · Independent 3.9%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 26%, Coalition 17%, Labor 25%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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