Mill Park district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
One Nation 50% to win Mill Park (toss-up).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), One Nation wins Mill Park in 50% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v One Nation (77%). Mill Park is held by Labor (Lily D'Ambrosio); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 11.6 points.
Chance of winning Mill Park
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 50% | 26.0% |
| Labor | 34% | 29.4% |
| Liberal | 16% | 24.1% |
Expected first preferences: Labor 29.4% · One Nation 26.0% · Liberal 24.1% · Others 10.9% · Greens 9.7%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 30%, Coalition 20%, Labor 24%, Greens 11%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
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