Oakleigh district: Victorian election 2026 forecast
Labor 81% to win Oakleigh (likely).
In Sondagio's seat forecast (20,000 simulated counts, updated ), Labor wins Oakleigh in 81% of simulations. The most likely final two is Labor v Liberal (93%). Oakleigh is held by Labor (Steve Dimopoulos); in 2022 Labor won it, ALP v LIB, by 13.5 points.
Chance of winning Oakleigh
Share of simulations won| Party | Chance | Expected first preferences |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 81% | 29.3% |
| Liberal | 14% | 30.0% |
| Greens | 5% | 20.1% |
Expected first preferences: Liberal 30.0% · Labor 29.3% · Greens 20.1% · One Nation 14.1% · Others 4.7% · Independent 1.8%. YouGov's seat-by-seat model (June–July) had One Nation 15%, Coalition 26%, Labor 31%, Greens 14%. No poll is published for this district: the forecast comes from the statewide poll average, the 2022 result, One Nation's 2025 federal vote here and preference flows. How the forecast works
All 88 districts
Statewide forecastAlbert Park · Ashwood · Bass · Bayswater · Bellarine · Benambra · Bendigo East · Bendigo West · Bentleigh · Berwick · Box Hill · Brighton · Broadmeadows · Brunswick · Bulleen · Bundoora · Carrum · Caulfield · Clarinda · Cranbourne · Croydon · Dandenong · Eildon · Eltham · Essendon · Eureka · Euroa · Evelyn · Footscray · Frankston · Geelong · Gippsland East · Gippsland South · Glen Waverley · Greenvale · Hastings · Hawthorn · Ivanhoe · Kalkallo · Kew · Kororoit · Lara · Laverton · Lowan · Macedon · Malvern · Melbourne · Melton · Mildura · Mill Park · Monbulk · Mordialloc · Mornington · Morwell · Mulgrave · Murray Plains · Narracan · Narre Warren North · Narre Warren South · Nepean · Niddrie · Northcote · Oakleigh · Ovens Valley · Pakenham · Pascoe Vale · Point Cook · Polwarth · Prahran · Preston · Richmond · Ringwood · Ripon · Rowville · Sandringham · Shepparton · South Barwon · South-West Coast · St Albans · Sunbury · Sydenham · Tarneit · Thomastown · Warrandyte · Wendouree · Werribee · Williamstown · Yan Yean